Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 研究ers Predict Outcome if Pandemic Restrictions Ease or End

通过 达雷尔学家PEHR |出版:2020年4月24日

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 研究ers Predict Outcome if Pandemic Restrictions Ease or End

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – As part of a joint taskforce report, researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi compared data on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Coastal Bend to data from Bexar County and elsewhere and showed the impact of easing or ending restrictions. The report was made during the researchers’ weekly presentation today to Corpus Christi City and Nueces County leaders.

相比于比尔县,哈里斯县,和德克萨斯在covid-19情况下,其余部分,从沿海弯曲节目数据的较早和稍小的峰值。供参考,美国在大约200万,哈里斯县比尔县的普查数据显示人口,约4.7亿美元,并努埃塞斯县,大约36.2。

“The Coastal Bend is doing well so far with the number of positive test cases continuing to decrease, including none during the past few days in Nueces County,” said Dr. Philippe Tissot, Interim Director of the 康拉德布吕歇尔研究所 (CBI) at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “While the total number of cases is still increasing in some surrounding areas such as Bexar County, the progression appears to be linear rather than exponential, which is a very good sign.” 

博士。克里斯鸟,生物学副教授,介绍了这个项目,并讨论看着在他们的研究三种情形的科学家之间的主要区别:继续目前的限制到位;缓解一些限制;或删除所有限制。

“我们预测,维持目前留在家里的措施保持感染低,在可预见的未来,未来几个月的控制数量,”小鸟说。 “解除所有限制,因而在感染人数激增,我们医院的基础设施的铺天盖地。中间方案显示,当留在家里是在4月30日的总体目标是要表明,回滚,就能对covid-19的效应结束,激励我们以寻找降低传输率的替代方式会发生什么,如戴口罩的市民“。 

被球队考虑的另一个因素是是病毒,定义为疫情传播的可能性变的“季节性”由于温度和湿度的季节性变化。

“上周,我们20%的基于哈佛大学的一项研究确定的20%的季节性效应的夏天降低了传输速率是给出了已知其他冠状和流感温和的估计,”小鸟说。

The team also is measuring the effectiveness of social distancing by looking at cell phone data. Because social distancing is such a critical part of preventing the virus from spreading from one person to another, A&M-Corpus Christi scientists are experimenting with a new tool to quantify social distancing in Corpus Christi and provide better information to decision makers.

“该数据是基于手机用户和估计人们经常会遇到其他人谁不是他们的家庭的部分的一部分,每天收集的信息,”天梭说。 “更具体地,它当两个设备50米范围内为小于60分钟计数”。

的数据,该数据不能被追溯到个人用户,显示了如何每日的人 - 人接触的家庭外显着正常水平之间在2月通过本留在家里的顺序下降,估计为约80%的减少由于缓解措施。

球队的介绍和调查结果上可以看到一个特殊的仪表盘: //www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

In addition to Tissot and Bird, the A&M-Corpus Christi team includes Dr. Lucy Huang, Associate Professor of Geographic Information Science and coordinator of the Geospatial Systems Engineering Program in the Department of Computer Sciences; and Marine Biology Ph.D. candidate Jason Selwyn as lead modelers for the taskforce. Many others are gathering and verifying information, building the information pipeline, and developing the dashboards that provide the information to the public.

教师和研究人员CBI,生命科学和计算机科学部门,护理与健康科学学院组成球队的核心,因为它在市,县,和当地医院工作人员合作。